We interrupt regular pigskin programming to offer this public-service announcement to all citizens of Eugene:
Run for your title-game lives!
The Oregon Ducks moved up to No. 2 in this week's Bowl Championship Series standings and that's as good as you can get without being No. 1.
Um, no. There's absolutely no difference between #1 and #2. All that changes is who is designated as the home team (gets to choose their jerseys and be listed second in a line score). What he means is that #3 is the best you can get without being in the championship game.
Let's go straight to the source for that answer.
Source? What source? The source of the official BCS standings (FOX)? The electorate of the Harris and Coaches polls? The six computer formulas' creators?
"My history with the BCS is not very good," Oregon Coach Mike Bellotti said this week. ". . . I don't have a lot of trust in that regard."
What? Bellotti? What's he the source of? The Oregon football program. Why would he be able to explain why being #2 is as good as it can get?
Why you can't blame him:
In 2001, Oregon finished No. 2 in the writers' and coaches' polls and No. 4 in the BCS. Edging the Ducks out for the title game matchup in the Rose Bowl against Miami was Nebraska, fresh off a 36-point loss to Colorado.
And yet again, a national sportswriter ignores the circumstances of 2001. After being throttled by Colorado, the electorate only put NU down to 6th in both polls and 4th in the BCS. Ahead of them were #1 Miami (#1 in the BCS), #2 Florida (#2), #3 Texas (#3), #4/#5 Oregon (#5), and #5/#4 Tennessee (#6). Colorado was now seen as #9/#10 and #9 in the BCS. Oklahoma had controlled its destiny until that same weekend when it lost to Oklahoma State and gave Texas the Big 12 title.
What happened the next weekend? Florida loses to Tennessee and falls to #6 and #6 in the BCS. Texas is upset by Colorado in the Big 12 Championship Game and falls to #10 and #7 in the BCS. The voters start to realize that maybe Colorado should be ranked ahead of Nebraska and move them up to #4/5 and #4 with Nebraska at #5/4 and #3 . Meanwhile, Oregon is less than impressive and squeaks by OSU 17-14. The Ducks are #3 and #5.
And then what happens the final weekend? Tennessee loses to LSU and drops to #8 and #6 in the BCS. Everyone else moves up. The coaches realize that it's embarrassing to have Nebraska ranked ahead of CU and move the Buffs up by virtue of their great looking practices that week.
The media begins whining about how COLORADO was robbed and no one outside of the west cares much about Oregon as they never saw the Ducks play. Never mind that Nebraska was labeled like '03 Oklahoma, '05 USC, and '07 USC as the greatest team of all time for most of the season by the media. Never mind that Nebraska was nearly universal #2 in all of the computers who don't care about when a loss happens nearly like pollsters do. Never mind that the media and coaches kept moving up teams like NU and UO for simply being idle. Never mind that the media didn't want margin of victory to be considered (although I don't remember what year they had all the computer remove it) because it wasn't in the interest of sportsmanship to run up scores. Never mind that Nebraska played the 14th toughest schedule in the country to Oregon's 31st (but Colorado was 2nd) according to the BCS metric. Never mind that Oregon lost an out of control game to final BCS #10 Stanford 49-42 and had its best win against #12 Washington State 24-17. Never mind that Nebraska beat Oklahoma in "the game of the century of the week" 20-10. Never mind that neither NU nor UO played a road non-conference game (although I'm not sure what game of Oregon's was canceled by 9/11). Never mind that Colorado avenged one of its losses to #5 Texas in the Big 12 Championship. Never mind that Colorado's other loss was to the #24 team in Fresno. And the Buffs never went on the road as well.
Finishing No. 3 was Colorado, soon to be trounced in the Fiesta Bowl by . . . Oregon.
And, then the revisionist history forgets the cries for 2-loss Colorado to play for the championship over Oregon.
Flash forward to 2005. Oregon finished 10-1 and thought it maybe deserved an at-large bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
It sure sounded good. The Fiesta Bowl even flew Bellotti and his athletic director -- Bill Moos at the time -- to Tempe for lunch.
There was a slight problem: Notre Dame also wanted to go to the Fiesta Bowl and you know how that works in years when the Irish don't start 1-9.
Notre Dame had two losses to Oregon's one and the Irish had stayed in the BCS contention only with a come-from-behind win at Stanford.
Instead of having to make the Oregon-or-Notre Dame call, however, the Fiesta Bowl got bailed out by the BCS rules book. A flurry of last-day losses spit out final BCS standings that moved Ohio State up to No. 4 and Notre Dame to No. 6.
Oregon at No. 5 was dead meat in this BCS sandwich.
Ohio State received an automatic bid because it finished in the top four and Notre Dame was a "must-take" because, as an independent, it needed only a top-six finish.
Notre Dame played Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl and Oregon went to the Holiday Bowl.
He actually gets the rules right here. Now, if he wanted to make a valid point that Notre Dame should never be allowed to be automatically put in the BCS, he is free to. It wouldn't be much of a good point as the Irish do have some national relevance despite what I do enjoy saying. Now, should the rule have been any independent or champion of a non-BCS conference in the top 6? I think that's a better rule than singling out the Irish. But Oregon had zero access to the game which is partly why we have a 5th game now. Did Oregon deserve an at large spot over #4 Ohio State? No one would make that argument even if you believe that at-large spots go to "the most deserving." Who would serve the Fiesta Bowl better—Notre Dame, the most loved and most hated program in America, who almost beat USC, complete with Laura Quinn, or Oregon, basically a national unknown and Fredo to USC's Michael? If the Fiesta had a choice, they absolutely would have chosen ND over UO. And they should.
So, Ducks fans, be afraid. Be very afraid.
This year could be headed for a BCS three-scream-peat.
You mean playing in the Rose Bowl is now akin to playing in the Holiday Bowl? Fuck that!
Even if the Ducks win their final three games, starting tonight at Arizona with a rare ESPN Thursday appearance, they probably will not hold the No. 2 spot if No. 1 Louisiana State and No. 3 Kansas also win out.
Kansas, at 10-0, is the only undefeated team left in the mix.
"And undefeated matters," independent BCS expert Jerry Palm said this week.
If Kansas closes with wins against Iowa State, No. 5 Missouri and No. 4 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, the Jayhawks probably will jump Oregon.
As they should.
That would pit Kansas vs. LSU in the title game and send Oregon to . . . the Rose Bowl.
Assuming that LSU wins out against Mississippi, Arkansas, and Georgia/Tennessee/Florida. LSU is taking a major hit in the computers for Louisiana Tech and really needs Georgia to get a conference championship boost.
Hey, remember when that used to be Plan A?
Last time I checked, that was the only thing a Pac-10 school could control. You know what would have kept the Ducks in the picture? Not losing to Cal.
The good news for Oregon -- that the combined record of its remaining opponents is 15-15 -- is also the bad news, because no one is going to be impressed with those three wins.
Yes, and LSU's known remaining opponents are 9-11.
Oregon might also get jumped by a one-loss Big 12 champion, either Missouri or Oklahoma. Missouri could boast of beating two top-five teams; Oklahoma could claim it just defeated the team that just defeated Kansas.
Palm isn't convinced one-loss Missouri or Oklahoma would jump Oregon, but he also isn't ready to bet his Palm Pilot it won't happen.
"You can't trust the voters," Palm said.
Dufrese does not have a vote in the AP or one that counts.
So what should Oregon do?
Root for LSU to lose sometime between now and Dec. 2.
No kidding! You root for anyone with a higher or equal claim to lose! It's a two team, one-game playoff! There are three teams seen with a valid claim. You have to root for one of them to lose and to hope that anyone with a close-to-valid claim loses too. There are three Big 12 teams with one loss, but only two of them (Kansas and Oklahoma/Missouri) can end up with one loss. You also hope that the voters don't keep moving Ohio State up for taking the last two weeks of the season off. And you hope that West Virginia gets upset by Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, or Connecticut.
The Ducks also have to win, and win big.
A 13-10 result over Arizona tonight is not going to impress anyone but the Ducks' defensive coordinator.
Since LSU was anointed as a werewolf with a chainsaw for a dick in September and Oregon was preseason unranked, they have to overcome LSU's perception of being great. They also have to take advantage of a rare national TV appearance thanks to the Pac-10's lousy TV package.
The BCS ordered the computer operators to remove margin of victory from their formulas -- ironically, that was done as a result of Oregon's not getting credit for close wins in 2001 -- but the BCS has allowed voters to keep their eyeballs.
Ah, question answered from above. Of course, winning close isn't what great teams do. That's not what '01 Nebraska did as they won by 26 points per game while Oregon won by 14.1 points per game. Now, the pollsters see winning big and reward for it, but short of taking away votes from LSU and not giving Oregon's votes to Kansas, even winning big can't help.
Palm says the Ducks have to keep their BCS customers satisfied.
"Don't give voters a reason to vote you down," he said.
OK, but is blowing Arizona out even possible?
Of course it's possible! And being blown out by Arizona is possible. And having a 35-game home winning streak snapped by a 41-point underdog is possible.
Tonight's game in Tucson is the sort of event that can send the whole Oregon argument to an early grave.
As are next week's at UCLA and the finale against Oregon State. So are LSU-Ole Miss and LSU-Arkansas. So are KU-Iowa State and KU-MU.
Arizona has won two straight after a 2-6 start. And not only has Coach Mike Stoops saved his job, defeating Oregon would help his brother, Oklahoma Bob, move another step closer to the national title game.
What a nice storyline there for someone who doesn't even want to think.
Arizona isn't a top-drawer outfit, but it has a recent history of picking off ranked opponents: No. 18 Arizona State in 2004, No. 7 UCLA in 2005 and No. 8 California in 2006.
And it's also lost games to ranked opponents: (1) Coaches' #16 '04 Utah 23-6, (2) #21 '04 Wisconsin 9-7, (3) #8 '04 California 38-0, (4) #1 '04 USC 49-9, (5) #12 '05 Purdue 31-24, (6) #12 '05 California 28-0, (7) #1 '05 USC 42-21, (8) #15 '05 Oregon 28-21, (9) #8 '06 LSU 45-3, and (10) #3 '06 #20-6. Dufresne failed to mention U of A upsetting #25 Washington State last year. Talk about your cherry-picking. I don't even want to calculate what Oregon's record is against unranked teams since 2004.
So, nothing really matters for Oregon if it can't get out of Lute Olson's backyard with its ninth win.
Well, yes. It cedes control of the Rose Bowl to Arizona State. A two-loss team has no right being in national title contention. Of course, if LSU loses to Mississippi, nothing but the Sugar Bowl matters. If Kansas loses to Iowa State, we know the electorate isn't going to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Bellotti knows this to be a fact.
"If we win out, then we put ourselves in a position that people have to consider us," he said.
Right, they'd be in consideration along with possibly one-loss teams in Kansas, Missouri/Oklahoma, Ohio State, Arizona State, and LSU. As all one-loss teams should be.
He also knows:
"In 2001 we should have been in the championship game and in 2005 we should have been in the BCS, in a BCS game, and weren't in either."
Please join '98 Kansas State, '98 Tulane, '99 Nebraska, '99 Marshall, '00 Miami, '00 Washington, '00 Virginia Tech, '01 Colorado, '02 Notre Dame, '03 USC, '03 Miami (Ohio), '04 Auburn, '05 California, '06 Michigan, and '06 Boise State among other teams that I don't have at my finger tips who think that they "should" have played for the national championship or been in a BCS game but were passed over either by the rules or by more attractive programs.
I should point out that if I had a vote, I'd be voting (1) Oregon, (2) Kansas, and (3) LSU right now. However, I think all three teams will have a strong claim to the game should they win out. But if either Oregon or LSU wins out and is left out of the game, my response will be the same as it has been to every other complainer but Auburn—you should have beaten California/Kentucky.
No comments:
Post a Comment